Swine flu could hit third of population

An estimated 30 percent of the population could be affected by the swine flu pandemic over the winter months according to a leading Health Service Executive member, whose responsibility is to oversee the implementation of the pandemic plan. Gavin Maguire, Health Service Executive assistant national director MEM-Flu Pandemic, also said that the pandemic could last for up to two years and there could be two or three waves of attacks. He made these revelations when addressing the Civil Defence Officers Association National Training Seminar in the Cavan Crystal Hotel last week. As a result of this figure there could be a 10-20% workforce absenteeism over a 15-week wave and five per cent through peak week. Of those who fall ill one to two percent will require hospitalisation and 20% of those in hospital will require ICU. The average ICU length of stay will be 14 days. "Almost 50% of admissions to ICU will require ventilation and a number of hospitals are approaching their capacity in this area," he said. He added the HSE began plans for the Influenza Pandemic in 2005. "At that time we were aware of the bird flu but not swine. A national plan was established in 2007 and some elements were put in place between 2007 and April 2009." There would be a significant wave of activity lasting 15-20 weeks, based on the last three pandemics the world witnessed, he said. "From a HSE perspective it's important that a pandemic plan in place catering for infection control, staff absenteeism, staff redeployment, and continuation of essential activities." It would have to stockpile essential items that may be short in supply during peak weeks and establish a hotline as well as a web based support system to deal with public concern. The HSE is training 1,500 nurses how to use ventilation equipment, stock piling anti-virals for half the population as well as large quantities of masks gowns, gloves and other protective equipment healthcare workers need, including needles and syringes. "Postponement of activities will result especially with the moratorium on filling places for some time," said Mr. Maguire. The objective was to prevent people becoming infected. There would be hospitalisation, sickness, death and absenteeism from work but "hopefully this will be significantly reduced by the mass vaccination programme". The vaccination programme began on October 19, first offered to people most at risk. Priority groups have been established. One vaccination should be enough but there is concern, Mr. Maguire said, that the virus could reassert and reduce the elimination of the vaccine effect. "Those over 65 who have contracted the flu have a high mortality rate." Up to 90% of GPs were participating in the vaccination scheme and clinics have also been established to cope with the demand. "There is no coverage for swine flu with a seasonal flu vaccine," Mr. Maguire claimed.