Prices flat in last quarter of 2022

Property prices in Cavan have bucked the national trend by staying flat during the final quarter of 2022, according to the latest MyHome.ie Property Price Report.

The report, in association with Davy, shows that the median asking price for a property in the county remains at €199,000. This means prices have risen by €20,000 compared with this time last year.

Asking prices for a three-bed semi-detached house in the county also stayed flat over the quarter at €185,000. This means that prices in the segment have risen by €28,000 compared to this time last year.

Meanwhile, the asking price for a four-bed semi-detached house in Cavan also stayed steady over the quarter at €210,000 - up by €15,000 compared to this time last year.

The median price is the ‘middle price’. It can be thought of as the price of the house, which is more expensive than exactly half of the other houses. Myhome.ie deems it superior to the average in estimating the price of a typical house.

There were 279 properties for sale in Cavan at the end of Q4 2022 – an increase of 5.2% over the quarter.

The average time for a property to go ‘sale agreed’ in the county after being placed up for sale now stands at nearly two and a half months.

The author of the latest Property Price Report, Conall MacCoille, chief economist at Davy, said it appears the market held up better than anecdotal evidence had suggested in 2022.

“There are 15,000 properties listed for sale on MyHome.ie, an improvement from the beginning of 2022 but below pre-pandemic levels exceeding 20,000... We expect transactions will exceed €21bn in 2022, up 7.5% in volume terms on 2021.”

Mr MacCoille warned that buyers are stretched to a degree not seen since 2009. “The average residential transaction in Q3 2022 was €370,000, now 7.7x the average income of €48,000. This is a similar valuation multiple to the UK, where house prices are now falling due to a surge in mortgage rates above 6%.”

The economist noted that already stretched valuations in Ireland could be exacerbated by the Central Bank’s decision to ease mortgage lending rules to four times’ income. He said this gave an upside risk to the 4% house price inflation prediction for next year.

He added that recent months had seen worrying trends in the homebuilding sector, with housing starts slowing, and the construction PMI survey pointing to the flow of new development drying up.

“We still expect housing completions will pick up to 28,400 in 2022 and 27,000 in 2023. However, the outlook for 2024 is far more uncertain. The government’s ambitious plans to expedite planning processes are welcome although, as ever, the proof will be in the pudding.”

Joanne Geary, managing director of MyHome.ie, said that vendor sentiment had been somewhat affected by rising costs and interest rates. “Over 3% of all properties on MyHome.ie saw asking price reductions in Q4, a low rate but even still the highest figure since Q3 2020. However, asking prices tend to fall toward the end of the year... While asking price increases have cooled, the market has still remained remarkably resilient despite the uncertain environment.”

She said that stock levels are concerning. “Stock levels are improving but are still not running at the levels we need to see in order to satisfy demand. As such, we hope to see inflationary pressures ease in the construction sector over the coming months.”