‘Soldiers of Destiny have their backs to the wall for this one’

Fianna Fail have their backs to the wall but there are those in the party who say they are at their best in such an adversarial situation. Certainly the 400 or so delegates who crowded into the function room at the White Horse hotel last Thursday night are up for the fight to retain the party's two seats in Cavan/Monaghan. “We can stand on our record. Look at our record of achievement,†was the refrain from senior party strategists as they exhorted the delegates to work every doorstep in this great battle for political survival. Fine Gael cannot be blamed for believing that the mantle of power is about to be placed across their shoulders and that they are up to the task. Heather Humphries is the retiring Seymour Crawford's heir apparent, while Joe O'Reilly believes that his hour has now come and that he will be elected as the Cavan Fine Gael standard bearer in the new Dáil. As we go to press, Fine Gael are still considering the option of putting up a third candidate with the aim of garnering extra votes for the party in the catchment of Cavan town. It is a tough call for Fine Gael as they know the danger of running a third candidate, as demonstrated in the 2002 election when Andrew Boylan, the sitting TD, surprisingly lost out in the distribution of Paddy O'Reilly's votes after he was excluded from the contest. Sinn Féin have decided to run a second candidate and Kathryn Reilly is running alongside sitting Deputy, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin. Some experienced observers are putting the young economics graduate from Ballyjamesduff firmly in the running for the fifth and final seat. In the last election Deputy Ó Caoláin obtained 13,162 first preference votes and was elected on the first count. With the quota likely to be around 10,000 votes this time, Sinn Féin will require a substantial increase in its vote throughout County Cavan if it is to be in the running for that fifth seat. The party currently has four county councillors in Cavan as well as a number of town councillors. Sinn Féin believe that with a strong local Cavan candidate, coupled with Fianna Fail's decline in the opinion polls, they really having a fighting chance to win two seats. Liam Hogan is the Labour Party standard bearer. While not winning a seat in last year's elections to Cavan County Council, he polled strongly and while the ‘Gilmore gale' may have abated, the Labour party locally feel that the conditions are right for the people of Cavan/Monaghan to make a choice about who they will vote for - on the things that matter, the pressing social and economic issues of the day. A young solicitor, Ann Gallagher, made a dramatic impact for the party back in the Spring tide of the early 1990s and was appointed a senator for her achievements. However, she failed to make the necessary breakthrough in the subsequent general election, as Cavan/Monaghan voters opted once again for the two big parties and Sinn Féin came to the fore as the third force in the constituency. This election is one of the most crucial in the history of the state. The opinion polls place Fianna Fáil in a dismal position, which beggars belief for many friends and foes who have come to accept the party as a colossus at the heart of the Irish political system. It has units in every parish, town and village in the state and they will be moving might and main to reverse the tide. They have now only a month to do so - 2012 was the understood general election date and have events now conspired against them to effect a political recovery? It would be foolhardy to write them off as a major political force as national pundits are doing - it is likely that they will emerge from this election badly bruised but not broken. The people of Cavan/Monaghan, like the rest of the country, will face difficult political choices in this election - with uncertainty in terms of jobs, increased unemployment and a genuine fear for the future gripping practically all the Irish people at this time. No matter what the outcome of this week's events, the people will now have their say in the next few weeks on how we might extricate ourselves from what is a most difficult and challenging economic crisis with huge social ramifications. As we go to press, the Finance Bill, which gives legal standing to the recent tough budgetary measures, is before the Dáil in a testing week for the Irish political system. Fine Gael and Labour are reserving their right to vote against sections of the Finance Bill but the government will be able to get it through by Saturday with the support of the Green Party and Independents Jackie Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry. Sinn Féin are implacably opposed. When passed, the way is then clear for Taoiseach Brian Cowen to ask the president to dissolve parliament - whether he will do that on Saturday or wait until Tuesday morning to make a valedictory speech to the Dáil is unclear. However, it is now certain that the general election will be moved forward to February 25, two weeks earlier than the planned date. Parallels have been made with the hard times of the 1980s, the huge emigration of the 1950s, the austerity caused by World War II or indeed the economic war. Many would say that those times were more difficult and certainly in terms of day-to-day living, the Irish people of the 1930s had little in terms of home comforts. However, we are now living in a different age. In this the early years of the 21st century people have become used to a higher standard of living, which they believe is their right as a result of having worked hard to attain a good education and to apply their talents in their chosen profession or business activity. The time honoured belief that educational achievement is a passport to career success and a better life has been shattered for many young professional people. Others have seen their businesses decline and close while still countless others in jobs have joined the ranks of the unemployed. This election will be fought on the economy and how it has affected every sector of Irish life. Most importantly, the impact of the recent budget with its increase in personal taxation and social welfare cuts.