The virus figures that are going viral

 

In these days of high anxiety, many people are finding some comfort in the figures charting the projected rate of COVID-19 spread against the actual number of confirmed cases.

On Monday, March 16, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar further dampened the almost extinguished national mood ahead of St Patrick's Day with the chilling prediction that 15,000 people would be infected by the coronavirus by the end of the month.  The Taoiseach's expert advisers had arrived at that figure on the basis that there would be a 30% daily increase.

That announcement piqued Catherine O'Sullivan's interest. The IT business analyst decided to chart the disease's actual spread against the official projection. Each night the National Public Health Emergency Team publish the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths caused by the virus. The medics presenting the figures however do not typically concern themselves with the government's original projection.

"I thought it would be good to know how many cases we 'should' have today, and I couldn't find that anywhere. So I did a spreadsheet just for myself to keep track of it," Catherine told the Celt on Wednesday evening. "I decided to share it [on Twitter], and after a few nights it went viral. People have obviously liked it because you can see what's expected daily, and where we are.

"I am just adjusting the model based on where we are every day."

When The Anglo-Celt speaks to Catherine the figures we have are from Tuesday, March 24. According to the official projections the Republic should have had 423 new cases confirmed on that day; bringing the total number to date to 1,832. The actual figure last Tuesday was 204, and the actual total to date was 1,329. It meant that when Catherine applied the 30% daily increase to the actual total of 1,329 the adjusted total number of cases predicted for April 1 would not be 15,000 (or more accurately 14,946), but 10,841. That's 4,105 less sick people than predicted, and many lives saved!

The projected number of cases has well outstripped the actual number of confirmed cases every day, except for one - Thursday, March 19.

While the real figure for daily increase may be in the 20s as opposed to 30%, Catherine refuses to deviate from the 30% figure for the model.

"A lot of people have said to me that the problem with this model is - it's true as well - everyone who is waiting for a test has not been tested. Okay, if we tested  tomorrow morning the 40,000 people that are waiting, with the seven per cent positive rate that we know has been playing out then we would get 3,800 people on the graph - that's why I'm not saying it's going to be way, way lower, because that to be taken into consideration.

"All I am saying is: 'Hey, this is where we are today, let's see where we are tomorrow."

She expects that the stricter criteria for receiving a test - two or more symptoms - to increase the number of actual confirmed cases.

"Now if they are still going to be doing 2,000 tests a day there is going to be a higher percentage of those who will be positive, because the criteria has been tightened."

She adds: "That's why I am not changing the percentage on the adjusted model, I think it's more accurate to leave it the way it is, because we're not assuming anything then."

When pushed, Catherine accepts she is "definitely encouraged" by the figures.

"I do think it's not going to be 15,000 anyway, definitely not. I think it could be a lot lower, it's just a nice way of tracking it.

"I do think the government did act in time to bring in all the social distancing measures and I think that will have an effect."

Catherine, like many of us, has been able to continue her job with Permanent TSB working from home, despite the COVID-19 restrictions. She also observes that such actions, and advice from the authorities, has been successful in "flattening the curve".

"The curve for the end of the month was 15k - already we are bringing that down. I do think we are flattening it. I think that's why the government aren't bringing in tighter lockdowns or anything. I think they know it's working - they are starting to get evidence of that," she hastily adds: "We don't 100% know that of course."

Will Catherine continue charting it into April?

"I would like to," she replies without hesitation. "The thing is I have based this off a model that the government had predicted so I'm hoping that they'll do another prediction.

"I would hope that the government would say 'This is our model, and this is our prediction for the end of April', let's say, and then I will keep charting and using the percentage they are using."

 

You can follow Catherine O'Sullivan on Twitter at @osullica