Breakdown: Rise in Covid spread across Cavan-Monaghan
'We are concerned about winter'- expert on Covid
Yesterday's announcement by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre was that there had been three deaths in people with COVID-19, and 10 more confirmed cases nationally.
As of the beginning of this week, Monday, June 22, there have now been a total of 1,720 COVID-19 related deaths in Ireland, and 25,391.
Furthermore 404,989 tests have been carried out. Over the past week alone, 18,368 tests were conducted, with just 97 people testing positive for infection, giving a positivity rate of 0.5%.
At one stage both counties Cavan and Monaghan sparked concern nationally as both rivalled for the unenviable title of having the highest number of infection cases per capita.
Despite some assurances that the county may be over the worst, at present, there are experts in the field who believe the country may never know why some counties such as Cavan and Monaghan had such high incidence rates of the disease compared to others. As a result there are concerns for the coming winter season, with the HSE understood to be working on putting in place more sustainable, longer-term solution” for testing and treating of confirmed infection cases.
In the latest CSO study of the spread of Covid-19 in Ireland, analysts noticed a slight decline in cases of the virus was spotted in cities, but an increase in the number of cases in urban towns.
It examined figures for counties like Cavan and Monaghan, where the number of cases hit a peak in April.
Cavan
From when there were just three cases starting out in Cavan, identified March 21, the graph crept ever steadily upwards, even leaping in stages when more frequent testing came on stream.
According to the HPSC online data, the earliest of the large single leaps in the number of cases in Cavan came April 3-4, when confirmed infections jumped from 76 to 115 (39).
Before that the biggest single day jump was April 1-2 (26).
From there the trend continued. In the week beginning April 4 up to April 11, Covid infections increased by 107 new cases to 222 in the county, with 41 of those accounted for on dates between April 9-10.
In the next week, April 11 to 18, there were 179 new cases, with a significant jump in cases in that period reported between April 13-14, from 254 to 310 (56).
Between April 19-25, infections increased from 403 to 609 (206); from April 26 to May 2 up to 682 (73); May 3-9 up to 753 (71).
After this date the rate of increase lessens. Between May 9-16, infection cases increased from 753 to 788 (35); May 17-23 up to 825 (37); and May 24-30 up to 839 (14).
Since May 31 there has been just 17 new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the county.
Monaghan
In neighbouring Co Monaghan, trends were similar. There has been 536 confirmed cases in Co Monaghan to date up to June 21 last.
However the county was among the last in the country to have a confirmed case of infection.
According to the HPSC records, there were three (cumulative) when records began on March 21.
Following that numbers rose by 23 by April 3, before the first spike hit, with 29 new cases confirmed overnight into April 4.
Between April 4 and 11, new case numbers rose by 43 to 95 from 52.
Another spike followed in the subsequent days, with new cases increasing by 28 between April 11-12; 24 between April 12-13; and 14 between April 13-14. By the end of the week (April 18) there was 187 confirmed cases in the county, almost double compared to the Saturday before.
The single largest spike in new cases in Co Monaghan came between April 21-22 when in a matter of 24 hours there were 69 new cases confirmed.
There were 385 new cases confirmed in April; 109 more in May; and 133 new infection cases confirmed to date in June.
Virus Spread
Virologist and director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL) Dr. Cillian De Gascun recently addressed the Special Committee on Covid-19 Response debate where he noted that public health has been heavily involved in investigating those clusters and increased activity.
“As for county variation, and in fact international variations, it is very difficult to dissect out why one county is hit more than another. If the outbreaks and clusters of cases are taken out, one still sees county-by-county variation. We need to remember that Cavan and Monaghan are very close to Dublin by European standards, so it is not anomalous for the disease to be seeded in the capital, which is also the transportation hub, and then to spread out somewhat randomly in different directions from the capital,” said Dr De Gascun, who was joined at the debate by Professor Philip Nolan, president of NUI Maynooth, who also leads the government's national Covid-19 modelling team.
“We may never find a fully satisfactory explanation for why some counties have high incidence of this disease and other counties have low incidence,” added Dr De Gascun.
It was Prof Nolan's opinion that it may take a “long time to tell” just how the spread became or virulent in the region. “One learns the full story of a pandemic when it is over. People will look back through the records constantly to see if we can get any clue as to why there are these variations.”
Responding to a question tabled by Cavan-Monaghan Sinn Féin TD Matt Carthy whether a second wave of the virus was “probable” or “possible”, Dr. De Gascun said the “problem” with this new virus is that when experts have studied pandemics in the past it has been predominately focused on influenza viruses, and have all come with second and third waves.
“This virus is not influenza. SARS did not really get to a second wave; MERS has not got to a second wave. That is the challenge for us in trying to anticipate what will happen with this virus. The other human coronaviruses tend to be seasonal and to peak in the first month or two of the calendar year. From a virology perspective, we are concerned about winter,” stated Dr. De Gascun, whose understanding is that the HSE is now working to set up a “more sustainable, longer-term solution” for testing and treating ahead of the coming winter season.