Longford next as Cavan look to retain top spot

NFL round 3 preview

While he’s hardly cart-wheeling his way into training, Cavan manager Mickey Graham must be very satisfied with how the opening two rounds of the National League have panned out.

Cavan sit top of Division 3, with four points from four and a score difference of +15. That compares favourably with the other two divisions from which teams are seeking to make an escape.

Only Division 4 Leitrim (four points, +19) are in better shape as we write and Derry, in Division 2, are in an identical position.

Neither Leitrim nor Derry, however, have yet played a major contender for promotion; Cavan have, having taken down Westmeath in Mullingar in round one. Cavan are rated as 2/5 favourites for promotion – only Dublin in Division 2 and Laois in Division 4, both of whom would view themselves as being much better than their league status would indicate, are shorter.

Graham will be particularly pleased to have negotiated the opening two hurdles without so many regular starters. Thomas Galligan and Luke Fortune have left the panel; Gearoid McKiernan, Gerry Smith, James Smith and Killian Brady haven’t featured at all while Jason McLoughlin missed the Tipperary game, as did Conor Brady, and Paddy Lynch has only been fit to come on.

Graham has never been afraid to blood players but, down half a team, he has had no choice – and the new players have done well. Ryan O’Neill is improving and growing in confidence all the time, David Brady and Johnny McCabe both did well last time out. Niall Carolan, who broke into the team late last year, looks like a potential star. Brandon Boylan, too, has taken his chance.

But most of all, Dara McVeety’s form has been extraordinarily good – a solid case could be made for the Crosserlough player having been Man of the Match in four of Cavan’s five games this year so far.

Of course, winning matches brings its own pressures. Cavan must now kick on and go up; anything less would be a collapse given that there are three home games remaining and Westmeath are out of the way. Three wins from the next five matches (Longford home, Offaly away, Down home, Antrim away, Fermanagh home) should do the trick.

But a lot rides on these next few games as Cavan seek to return to Division 2 for the first time since 2020. While league form was poor and totally out of sync with Ulster Championship performances, there are mitigating factors in how Cavan ended up in Division 4.

It’s worth remembering that had Covid not intervened, Cavan could well have found themselves in Division 1 for the 2021 season. After stringing three wins together in rounds two, three and four, they were hot favourites for promotion to the top flight and although a sloppy round-five loss to Clare dented that somewhat, it was still in their own hands.

But the final two rounds ended up being played six months later, with squads decimated by Covid-related withdrawals, Cavan were beaten in fairly close games by Kildare and Roscommon and freak results elsewhere saw them condemned to Division 3 on six points.

The following year, the league was reduced to three group games and a play-off – with time up in the third round loss to Derry, Cavan were heading into the promotion play-offs before a late score in Brewster Park saw Fermanagh and Longford draw and suddenly, it was a relegation dog fight.

The sense is that Cavan should be plying their trade in Division 2 and a win over Longford this Sunday (2pm, Kingspan Breffni) would help enormously in making that a reality.

From the outset, it was felt that league promotion was between Cavan, Westmeath, Down and Longford but Paddy Christie’s side are the ones who have disappointed hugely thus far. With so many talented players returning to the fold, there were high hopes and that was under-pinned when they won the O’Byrne Cup.

But while the away loss to Fermanagh was excusable if disappointing, the second-half collapse against Westmeath was criminal. Longford scored six points in a row at one stage in the first half of that game and led at half-time before somehow losing by 4-16 to 0-9.

Their season may well rest on this Sunday – a loss and promotion is out the window, for one thing. So, the visitors will be expected to throw everything they have at this one. Graham’s knowledge of the Longford players will be a big help but the key for Cavan will be to match the underdogs’ desire, something this group have struggled with at times over the years when they have been favourites.

Form is only one factor in predicting results; Cavan have the edge there but this will likely be a fierce battle. Still, the vibes around Cavan this year are very positive. With so many new faces desperate to keep or nab a jersey, there should be no complacency. Cavan to win.