Opinion: Stats suggest a close battle is in store

Analysis

Having crunched the numbers, DAMIEN DONOHOE finds there is not much between Cavan and Monaghan at present.

In the build-up to any big game, you want to be able to find something that the opposition are sure to do so you can exploit it to your advantage. The searching through the last number of games takes hours upon hours as you try to spot a trend, set-piece or system that they continuously go to in games.

Looking at Monaghan, they have had a similar league campaign to us in some ways. Our home record for three games was two defeats and a draw while for Monaghan they lost all three of their home fixtures to Kerry by nine points, Galway by seven points and Mayo by two points. So a bit like Kingspan Breffni for us, St Tiernach’s Park in Clones can’t be called a fortress for Monaghan.

Vinny Corey’s side lost six of their seven games in their 10th season in a row in top-flight league football, resulting in relegation. In the six defeats, the biggest losing margin was against Derry, who finished with 13 points to spare. Their average losing margin was 7.6 points which is identical to Cavan’s, while the 15-point loss to Armagh is our biggest losing margin.

We have been bemoaning our first half performances over the last six games in the league as we entered the break behind in all six. We started the league against Kildare and were ahead by four at the break while Monaghan on the same evening in Croke Park went in level with the Dubs.

From that evening until the Mayo game, Monaghan trailed by between four and six points at half-time in all five games. In their last game of the league, which was a dead rubber, they lead by a point at the midway juncture. Across the league, we were behind at half-time by an average of 5.1 while Monaghan’s average was 5.2 points.

Monaghan have scored 7-82 in their league run which in old money is 103 points, identical to the 3-94 we scored. Monaghan scored four more goals than we did and had a wider range of scorers. Across the league, 23 different players scored for the Farney county with six of them scoring four points or more.

Jack McCarron tops the Monaghan scorers list with 2-22(1-0 pen, 13f) followed by Michéal Brannigan with 0-10 (5f). Ciaran McNulty (1-4), Conor McManus (0-7, 2f in a game and a half), Stephen O’Hanlon (1-2) and Michael Hamill (0-4) make up the rest of the main scoring threats.

From the 30 players that got game time in the league for Cavan, 17 got on the scoresheet and again, like Monaghan, six players got four points or more.

Paddy Lynch is significantly ahead of all players on either side with his total for the league. Finishing with 1-48, the Crosserlough man hit a height this year that hasn’t been matched in many years by any Cavan player.

Of his total, 41 points came from frees or 45s and having missed only six dead-ball opportunities he finished the league with a marvellous 87% conversion rate. Our next five scorers were James Smith with 1-4, Cian Madden with 0-5, Gerard Smith with 1-2 and Dara McVeety and Caoimhin O’Reilly, both with four points.

The biggest difference statistically between the sides is their defensive record. We have conceded 7-96 in the seven league games which is an average of 1-13 per game. Monaghan, who it must be said are playing in the top division, have let 14-106 past them which is an average of 2-15 per game. They conceded more than any other team in all four divisions of the leagues.

Some will point to the fact that Rory Beggan wasn’t there as a reason for this. Darren McDonnell has played all seven league games so the Monaghan management are clearly trying to give him lots of experience. If the rumour that Beggan is home is true, it raises a headache for Vinny Corey.

Does Corey parachute Beggan in, having not kicked a ball or been with the team in months, to try to shore up the defence?

There are a number of problems with doing that. One is he is has just spent a significant amount of time focusing on and practising with an American football and that kicking style so there may be some rust when switching back to the O’Neill’s ball.

The second is the message it sends out to the panel members that have been loyal to Corey in their commitment to preparing to the championship. If a player can miss that much of the preparation and just waltz back into the team then was all that work worth doing?

The third one is the effect it will have on Beggan’s clubmate McDonnell. I’d imagine his confidence is fragile after the league and another knock to it could be fatal and that’s something Corey will have to weigh up.

There is a possibility that Beggan gets a call from an NFL team after the draft at the end of April and in that situation, McDonnell would have to step back into goals knowing, perhaps, that he hasn’t the full confidence of the manager.

Monaghan’s defensive record in the league may also be as a result of a lot of fluctuation in personnel. They used 13 different players in their back six over the seven games with only Ryan O’Toole and Killian Lavelle starting all seven games.

Ryan Wylie and captain Kieran Duffy played six games, with Duffy missing out on the final game against Mayo.

With those four players expected to start, the final two positions in the Monaghan defence will most likely be filled by Karl O’Connell, who played three of the final four league games, and All-Star Conor McCarthy, who returned to the starting team for the Tyrone and Mayo games.

Raymond Galligan will be no different than any other manager preparing to play Monaghan as he’s having to give special attention to Conor McManus and Jack McCarron. While Monaghan can hurt Cavan with a lot of other scorers, the pillars of the Monaghan attack remain the same.

A problem for Monaghan is they have suffered a lot of injuries during the league. Speedster Stephen O’Hanlon hasn’t played since the Derry game when he got injured while Michael Hamill missed the last two games also.

Second top scorer for Monaghan, Micheál Bannigan, came off with what looked like a muscle injury in the Mayo game but that clash saw the return of Sean Jones as he popped over two points in his first outing of the year.

Dessie Ward has started the last five games of the league in the forward line so he’ll be set to start again but after that, McManus and McCarron are the only two that plans can be made for with any level of certainty.

From our side, we have to decide what way we want to play and everyone must know and do their job in that system.

It looks like a high press is something Cavan are trying but too often one or two of our forwards don’t work hard enough to make the press work.

When we get the ball, we need to transition very fast and in doing that, we can create goalscoring chances. There have to be lots of runners moving with real intent to keep the attack going to the positive conclusion.

Monaghan have gone man-for-man for a lot of the league on opposition kick-outs and we have increased our retention rate as the league progressed when faced with man-to-man scenarios.

When the kick-out was slow to be taken against Roscommon, Monaghan did use a zonal press so we may see that at times.

Darren Hughes, playing at midfield, is a pivotal player as he drops back as a plus-one to help out their defence. He is also crucial to their attack as he is a safe pair of hands for possession in the middle of the field; he often uses his excellent mid-range handpassing ability to start penetrating attacks.

With all games, the tactical preparation is secondary to the mental side because if Cavan can’t match the work rate and effort of Monaghan, then they are unlikely to win. If you go on form, Monaghan are probably slightly ahead of Cavan having finished the league with a couple of good performances while not getting the result but history shows there is never much between these sides.

It might just come down to a few tiny moments where a Cavan player pressurises a Monaghan player on the ball, forcing him to rush a pass, or a Cavan player makes a selfless run all the way up the field without touching the ball but he keeps the Monaghan man away from Cavan’s ball-carrier.

These derbies can make heroes and hopefully we’re talking about heroes in blue and white rather than white and blue after Sunday.