Elections in the North: First Minister expected to retain seat

Despite being at the centre of controversy, which saw the collapse of the Stormont Assembly, it is expected that the North's First Minister, Arlene Foster will easily retain her seat once the votes across Fermanagh-South Tyrone constituency are counted following elections today (Thursday), March 2.

Foster, who secured 18.7% of the overall vote less than a year ago, has seen her tenure, for a time alongside Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness, mired in the ongoing Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal, but there seems little chance of the embattled Democratic Unionist leader losing her seat.
Her biggest challenge this election, meanwhile, will be to assist her primary running mate, Maurice Morrow, in reclaiming the seat he won in 2016 (14% of vote) and hold onto two seats for the DUP.
The DUP's biggest challenge, unsurprisingly, comes from their former governmental partners, Sinn Fein (SF), where the contest for places looks far less assured.
Dropping from six to five seats and with 12 candidates, SF are fielding three representatives including sitting MLAs Michelle Gildernew (14% 2016), Sean Lynch (10.1%), a former IRA commander, as well as Jemma Dolan in her first election.
However, the SDLP’s Richie McPhillips (8.5%), who edged out SF's John Feely by a grand total of 12 votes last time out, has worked hard over the past eight months making a name for himself at Stormont where he has often led the fight on rural issues.
The insurance broker from Lisnaskea faces the fight of his political life if he is to retain his seat, but may also come under pressure from the Ulster Unionist Party’s Rosemary Barton (6.4%).
Elsewhere, Traditional Unionist Voice Alex Elliott is expected to make some gains for his party, while other candidates include Noreen Campbell (Alliance), Tanya Jones (Green), Richard Dunn (Northern Ireland Conservatives) and Donal O’Cofaigh (Cross-Community Labour Alternative).
 
Electorate: 74,257

Turnout in 2016: 47,934 (64.6%)
Prediction: 2 DUP, 2 Sinn Féin, 1 SDLP