O'Reilly reviews Euro election exit polls

Exit polls from the European Elections in the Midlands-North-West constituency paint a picture of a growing divide between the two main parties in the State. The pole by RTE, TG4 and REDC suggests that after the first count Fine Gael will command 35% of the votes to Fianna Fáil's 9%.

 

Even considering the margin of error of 4% per candidate the 27% to 12% is still a sizeable gap. Speaking at the Drumalee count Centre Senator Joe O'Reilly was measured in his assessment of the exit pole figures.

 

“There is a very high margin of error, it's by no means scientific, but it is impressionistic. There is no question but Mairead [McGuinness] (FG) is skating ahead. What is interesting about the exit polls is the Mairead's figures tally with the opinion polls. They reflect well on Matt Carthy (SF) as well,” he said.

 

Sitting MEP McGuinness is anticipated by the poll to hit 25% of the first preferences, Carthy is on 15%. The surprise third place in the poll is Saoirse McHugh of the Greens who is expected to reach 12%. The fourth place is a tie of 10% between newcomer Maria Walsh (FG) and sitting MEP Luke 'Ming' Flanagan (Ind) both on 10%.

 

“Obviously there is a lot of interest in our neighbour and friend Brendan Smith,” Senator O'Reily says. The REDC survey of voters exiting the polls has Deputy Smith at 6%. “The numbers have to be a concern, but at the same time it is by no means the end of the story for him.”

 

Five years ago the first four elected were the top four after the first count. This time out a wider field may shake that up: “The transfers from from Mairead McGuinness to Maria Walsh will be interesting. Mairead transcend party and geography. There is an agricultural dimension to her vote and it's not necessarily the case that all her vote will go to her party colleague, but it should be the most significant transfer. Geographically she [Walsh] should benefit from the transfer from Fidelma Healy Eames and Anne Rabbitte,” Senator O'Reilly anticipated.

 

The size of the Green vote came as a surprise in what is predominantly a rural constituency: “That is notably high. There is a movement toward the Greens nationally and that will be reflected in the transfers as well.”

 

Senator O'Reilly believes it is crucial that his party colleague does well: “It is very important for Ireland that Maired is where she is. She is Vice-President of the parliament and there is quite a prospect that she may become President.”

 

Independent candidate Peter Casey scored a healthy 7% in the exit pole, but the FG senator believes this may benefit the local European hopeful: “There is some anecdotal evidence that some of Peter Casey's vote is from Fianna Fáil, so that may return to Fianna Fáil.”

 

As the day progresses the accuracy of the exit pole predictions will become apparent.