Will anyone pay the price of partnership?

There’s growing expectation that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will emerge with a paper outlining principles for government this week. Reduced to 35 TDs in the last election, Fine Gael initially seemed eager to sit on the opposition benches. However, with Sinn Féin (37 TDs) unable to muster a government from the remainder of the house, and Fianna Fáil (38 TDs including ceann comhairle) unable to attract numbers without their traditional nemesis, the intervening two months have seen a gradual change in the acting Taoiseach’s position.
Leo Varadkar last week stressed they required a third party to come on board to give a new government “legitimacy and authority”. The Fine Gael leader even named the parties they were open to: The Greens (12 TDs), Social Democrats (6 TDs), Labour (6 TDs).
Missing from that short list is the party who won the largest share of the popular vote.
“It is disappointing that they continued with their attitude of saying ‘anyone but Sinn Féin’, it’s an insult to anyone who did vote for us,” said Sinn Féín TD, Pauline Tully.
The newly elected Kilnaleck deputy opined that the drive to form a government was informed by Micheál Martin’s desire to be Taoiseach. “He doesn’t want to go down in history as the first Fianna Fáil leader not to be,” she said.
Fianna Fáil’s Deputy Niamh Smyth is indeed expecting her party leader to take charge  - “He’s got the experience, the wisdom and the steady hand to move the country forward and take us out of this crisis,” she insists. However she says that, far from being a power grab, she acknowledges that Fianna Fáil’s association with Fine Gael will probably do them electoral harm. 
“It’s unfortunate that we have been tarnished with the government in terms of doing the responsible thing of providing confidence and supply. Certainly it did us irreparable damage in the last election and I know that going into government with Fine Gael will probably do us more irreparable damage in the next election, but it’s about the country, and it’s about the people. It’s not about political parties at this moment and time. If we were being selfish about it we’d say ‘Ah we haven’t enough seats, we’ll leave it to Fine Gael and Sinn Féin to do it. 
“We’re taking our responsibility seriously and doing the unpalatable thing and going into government [with Fine Gael].”
Given the exceptional circumstances she doesn’t expect any decision on government formation to be put before a Fianna Fáil ard fheis as would be expected in normal times.
 
Hopeful
Senator Joe O’Reilly, meanwhile, is hopeful of an agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. “I think there will definitely be white smoke in that regard. The difficulty lies in getting one of the smaller parties to buy into it. I think on balance they ultimately will. But, if they don’t, we’re back to the polls in the autumn.”
From the mood music emanating from both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, it seems likely that the Green Party, the fourth largest party, will be their first preference in securing numerical stability.
Tate Donnelly, who stood for the Greens in the last election, was reticent to see his party align itself with the traditional big two for a full government term.
“The main thing we want to make clear is that the Greens are absolutely ready step up to the plate and govern, but that isn’t going to be on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s terms and nothing else,” he cautioned.
“It’s not the time to be negotiating a five-year plan anyway because we don’t know what we can negotiate on - we don’t know what money is available, or just how bad this [the COVID-19 crisis] might be.”
He noted that the Greens, who haven’t yet seen the policy paper, want a unity government including every party in the Dáil and says it’s been “very disappointing” that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been unwilling to speak to Sinn Féín. 
However, even Sinn Féin’s, Pauline Tully, seemed dubious a unity could work: “We haven’t examined it because we didn’t feel there were enough other parties willing to consider it.”
Mr Donnelly, who sits on the national executive committee, suspects that the traditional heavyweights may use the COVID-19 crisis to pressure the Greens into signing up to a five-year programme.
“The reality is we cannot commit to being intimidated and bullied into signing a five-year document right now, that’s going against all our principles.”
Senator O’Reilly (FG) isn’t convinced. “I don’t think it’s a matter of coercion, I think that the Greens have a responsibility,” said the Bailieborough senator.

Change in position
He added, that media speculation suggested that the FF/FG paper had “quite an emphasis on climate change” and concluded, “I wouldn’t be shocked though, having said all of that, were there to come a change in their position over the coming days.”
For the Greens to go into coalition it would require a two-thirds majority at ard fheis.
Whilst stressing he wants the COVID-19 emergency to come to an end, Senator O’Reilly suggests that some of the effects of the lockdown could inform future policy.
“This is actually curing emissions temporarily, and it’s producing the recipe for the curing of emissions in the long term. It’s a great time for the Greens to consider government,” he suggested.
Labour will also be in the sights of any coalition but Liam van der Spek would be “very reluctant” for his party to buy in. His position, echoed that of his newly elected party leader, Alan Kelly.
“With six seats we’re at an historically low number,” Mr van der Spek told the Celt. “I think we need to spend time in opposition to grow bigger so that we can be a positive force in Irish politics again, and stand up for the things we believe in. Just being the mud-guards of the big two centre-right parties, I don’t think that benefits our voters and doesn’t benefit the country - and certainly doesn’t benefit the party.”
Had their been an “all-party” unity government Mr van der Spek would have been open to considering that for a few months to get over the current crisis.
“There’s going to be an economic impact from all of this - especially when we are cleaning up at the end - are we going to make the same mistake as 2008 and go for an austere approach? Or are we going to spend and invest and go for a more Keynesian response to an economic crisis? It doesn’t look like Fine Gael are going to do the latter so I don’t think that Labour want to be in any government that’s going to make the same mistakes again,” he said.
While Róisín Shorthall, joint leader of the Social Democrats, told RTÉ Radio 1 they would give consideration to what the document contained, she also stressed the gulf in policy position between her party and FG/FF.
Given the stakes at play for the smaller parties Senator O’Reilly’s “hunch” puts the chances of them joining a coalition at 60:40 in favour. However he adds: “Were one of smaller parties not enthusiastically buying in, and accepting the programme and committing themselves long term... the best and neatest and smartest thing to do is have an election in the autumn.”
The Dáil is scheduled to sit on April 16, but whether that leaves enough time to successfully concluded government negotiations, remains to be seen.