Govt should consider Level Five over festive period – doctor

The option of extending current Level Five restrictions over the Christmas period should be explored if it will end the ongoing closure of businesses before a vaccine is available a local GP has said.

The cumulative number of cases of recorded infections now approaches 63,000 in Ireland. Although the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has noticed numbers across the country reduce over the last few days, they have not seen as big a reduction of virus cases in Dublin.

Cavan remains the county with the highest incidence rate (563.2 per 100,000 of population) but that has almost halved from the peak of over 1,000 in recent weeks. Cavan is followed by Meath (482.5), Sligo (332.6) and Westmeath (309.8). Those figures are valid as of midnight on Sunday, November 1.

Despite the high Cavan numbers, a local GP says the trend is going in the right direction: “We're seeing a significantly less numbers since Level Five came in almost two weeks ago,” Dr Niall Collins describes the current situation.

The doctor says numbers have dropped significantly over the last 10 days: “The reason is not the introduction of Level Five, it's because public behaviour changed when the argument happened between NPHET and the government. We think behaviour changed at that point.”

Public consciousness of their responsibility in halting the spread of infection is key to containing the virus: “The national numbers have not been above 1,000 cases in the last 10 days. If people did not change their behaviour then, it would be up around 1,200. It's acknowledged in the medical community that this reduction happened ahead of schedule.

“Any new restrictions introduced usually take two weeks to kick in, but we can see that the numbers have been reduced ahead of schedule. That is good news,” Dr Collins outlined.

Christmas 2020 is going to be very different: “The government have intimated that there will be a rolling lockdown for the foreseeable future,” Dr Collins says. “It will be lockdown until the early days of December. Then we all go and do a little bit of shopping, and we will be in lockdown again in January. I think it's inevitable that will happen.”

However the medical professional believes another option should be considered: “The public health policy should be clearer. Some people will say that, if you lockdown until mid-January and lose Christmas, then we might get the numbers to such a low level we may not need any more lockdown until a vaccine comes next Summer.”

Sacrifice

He says forgoing Christmas 2020 may have long-term benefits: “It would be a horrible sacrifice, having a longer lockdown, but potentially we would only have one lockdown this side of a vaccine.

“If you asked a lot of people which side they would go for, the majority would prefer one proper lockdown, and hopefully that would be the end of the lockdowns until a vaccine arrives, instead of lockdown, open up, then another lockdown. It is not quite as simple as that, but it's not far off the mark. The big issue is what is the 12-month plan, is is zero Covid, or is it rolling lockdown?”

At the most recent public briefing Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said the reduction in the national figures was the result of the “hard work Irish people are doing in taking on public health advice and taking measures to protect themselves and families”.

On the subject of a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the CMO said the “big challenge” for every developed country will be to distribute vaccines as quickly as possible, starting with the various priority groups.