Cavan must go for broke against Tyrone

Preview

A fortnight is a long time in football. After the high of defeating Mayo with a superb performance in Castlebar, Cavan were brought crashing back down to earth with a stunning defeat against Donegal in round two.

‘Stunning’ is the operative word, too; Cavan had matched Donegal well against the wind in the first half, a careless goal after the hooter aside, and created lots of chances early in the second before Donegal struck with a swiftness and ruthlessness which felt almost shocking.

Cavan should have been three to four points down at most entering the last 20 minutes so to lose by 19 points was unthinkable. Yet, within that smouldering wreckage perhaps lies something to cling to, unlikely as it sounds.

In the past, when Cavan sides have lost by similar margins, they were out-classed from start to finish. Take heavy defeats against Sunday’s opponents, Tyrone, as an example – when they beat Cavan by 16 points in 2019, the score was 0-12 to 0-3 at half-time.

When they won by 21 points 20 years ago in an Ulster Championship replay, it was 3-12 to 0-4 by the 47th minute whereas, last Sunday week, Cavan were still in the game at that stage and but for some poor shooting, would have been closer.

That they collapsed so alarmingly and looked gassed a long way out, however, is the big concern. Donegal, riled up by the antics of their manager Jim McGuinness, were merciless but Cavan looked like they downed tools, too.

They must lift them again this Sunday and, for Cavan, it doesn’t get any more daunting than Tyrone. Forty-two years have passed since Cavan beat them in the championship and a lot of ugly scar tissue has formed in the interim.

In mitigation, Cavan have tended to draw Tyrone when the Red Hands have been exceptionally strong. In 1986, 1995, 2001, 2005, 2016, 2018 and 2021, for example, Tyrone beat Cavan en route to either an Ulster title or an All-Ireland final appearance.

There have been a couple of draws in there but generally, Tyrone are well out of sight by half-time, as was the case when the sides met in Omagh eight weeks ago and the Blues found themselves 0-14 to 0-4 in arrears.

So, the challenge for Cavan will be to stay in the game into the second half – and then the job of work really starts, as we saw last Sunday week. Tyrone are 1/8 favourites, with Cavan priced at 6/1, which says a lot.

Yet Cavan have some good form in the book this season, notably the wins over Roscommon and Mayo and also a very good performance, and win, over Down. Cavan also beat Louth and Westmeath and came within a kick of a ball of promotion to Division 1 when they narrowly lost to Cork in round seven.

At full tilt, they have enough about them to trouble Tyrone but the consistency is not there and, indeed, hasn’t been for many years now.

Regardless, as it pans out, Cavan could lose and still advance if Donegal beat Mayo, which they are fancied to do (for what it’s worth, Donegal are priced at 2/5). The Connacht side have a high ceiling but also lack consistency; they could well upset McGuinness’s men in Dr Hyde Park.

So, essentially, it is still in Cavan’s hands. The permutations are as follows:

If Cavan lose and Donegal win, Cavan qualify in third place. A Cavan loss and a Mayo win sends Cavan out while a Cavan loss and a draw in the Hyde also sees Cavan exit.

If Cavan win the game and Mayo draw or win, Cavan top the group and go straight to the quarter-finals. If Cavan beat Tyrone and Donegal defeat Mayo, Cavan will finish second and play one of the third-place finishers in the preliminary quarter-final.

The third scenario is if Cavan draw – provided there is a winner between Mayo and Donegal, Cavan would advance in third place. If both games finish level, Cavan are out.

It’s important to note that scoring difference won't matter for Cavan, no matter what, because the only scenario in which it will separate teams is if all three are tied on the same points and the only way that can happen here is if there are two draws.

And in that case, Cavan can only lose out - as in, they can't improve their scoring difference, currently the worst in the group, in the event of two draws anyway.

Should Cavan finish third, there is still a chance of what would be viewed as a tricky but winnable preliminary quarter-final against the likes of potentially Meath or Down, although there is the possibility of drawing a big beast like Galway or Dublin.

The feeling is that there was an element of freak about the final scoreline last time out but it will still tremendously disheartening for all concerned. There are only so many heavy losses a team can ship before the resistance drains entirely; as the cliché tells us, it’s the hope that kills you and Cavan have played well enough at times to inspire that, only to have their aspirations dashed emphatically.

When they lost by 21 points in that 2005 replay, Cavan bounced back with impressive wins over Meath and Donegal to reach the last 12 of the All-Ireland for the first time. The players’ pride was hurt and there was a reaction.

That has to be the case this Sunday. Cavan have prepared like a serious team and moved like one at times; serious teams are sickened to their stomachs by heavy losses and respond accordingly. So, this is both a daunting challenge and a major opportunity.

Given how dangerous Mayo tend to be when written off, Cavan cannot afford to view this a free shot, despite the fact that no-one outside the camp would view it as a likely outcome. Exiting the championship is a live possibility so Cavan must bring, as Ray Galligan likes to say, their “best performance” and see where it takes them and the manager would be well advised to make some changes and go for broke at this stage.

Nothing is certain bar this: Cavan owe Tyrone a defeat (or five) and if they pull it off, it would be regarded as one of the best championship scalps in decades.

Cavan v Tyrone, Sunday, 4pm, Brewster Park