Middle East conflict hits farmers’ pockets at worst time

THE blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a double whammy for farmers as the supply of both fuel and fertilisier are disrupted by the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

The window for spreading slurry and farmyard manure (FYM) in Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Donegal opened on February 1 and for chemical fertiliser on February 15. The first attack on Iran came less than a fortnight later on February 28.

Ever since, farmers have seen the price of the three F’s – fuel, fertilisier and feed – increase almost daily.

The conflict drove up global gas and oil prices immediately which, directly impacted the cost of producing nitrogen-based fertilisers. The Minister for Agriculture, Martin Heydon, told the Dáil recently that “it’s estimated that 25 - 30% of global nitrogen fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz”.

Fertiliser prices are heavily linked to the cost of natural gas, which is used in the production of nitrogen-based fertilisers. Roughly half of the over 2.1 million tons of urea stockpile in the past two years could not be loaded onto vessels due to logistical disruptions.

Responding to a parliamentary question last Thursday, Martin Heydon also said: “An analysis of the National Fertiliser Database indicates there is sufficient fertiliser already in the country until mid-April.”

When last year’s fertiliser-spreading window closed on September 15, there were 127,000-plus professional fertiliser end users, mostly farmers, registered on the National Fertiliser Database.

According to the Central Statistics Office, approximately 694,050 tonnes of fertiliser were sold in the first two quarters of 2025, which, represents an increase of almost 106% compared to the same period in the previous year.

While the Department has not released figures for the number of farmers who finished the season with “closed stock” - or surplus supplies of fertiliser on their farm - the numbers are not expected to be great.

That means unless farms have been stockpiling fertiliser during the year in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis when input prices remained consistently high compared to pre-2022 prices, then this year will bring new strains on farm budgets.

THE SUPPLIER

On Tuesday, March 24, the Celt did a call-round of agri suppliers in Cavan and Monaghan to find the most up-to-date fertiliser prices.

Most suppliers we spoke to were hesitant to quote to a newspaper saying instead: “It’s impossible”, “it’s like a moving target” or “I can’t quote because I don’t have the stock.”

We were quoted the following prices in Cavan:

€560 + VAT for 1 ton of CAN

€570 + VAT for CAN + Sulphur

€640 + VAT per ton of pasture sward

€660 + VAT per ton of cut sward

The supplier we spoke to couldn’t quote for protected urea because “There’s no point, we can’t get it”.

In Monaghan, a supplier quoted nitrogen at between €560 and €580 + VAT per ton.

“I have two ton of it left at €480,” the Monaghan agri merchant told the Celt, “I have ordered a lorryload which is costing me €540 per ton, to draw it home adds another €10 on to that cost and if I am to get €10 per ton profit on it that will bring the price to the farmer to €560 per ton.

“They say CAN will be at €560,” he said, “And, I know I’ll be at that in a week’s time.”

The same supplier said urea is at €800 per ton “but I can’t get it”.

“Replacement costs are higher than the sale price on the same day,” the Monaghan merchant said. “At this stage, fertiliser sales is basically like money-laundering. Your accountant wouldn’t see the sense in it.”

“We have people calling from the North but we’re looking after our local customers,” he added.

A Tyrone business was reluctant to quote the Celt because prices in the North are “going up every day” but the general picture, he said, is that “everything will be over £500 per ton soon”. The Tyrone supplier said he is quoting £460 per ton for nitrogen and £560 per ton of compound.

A supplier over in Armagh couldn’t quote for CAN + sulphur and protected urea “because there is none”. A one-ton bag of CAN 27% nitrogen is retailing at £470 sterling + VAT.

THE MINISTER

Martin Heydon said it is “too early” to assess the full impact on farmers’ margins.

“The impact on fertiliser prices will depend on how long the disruption lasts, whether physical energy production infrastructure is damaged, how secondary markets respond etc,” the minister said.

Martin Heydon also told the Oireachtas that his department is meeting with fertiliser importers this week and will “continue to monitor the situation closely”.

THE FARMER

One dairy Co Monaghan farmer said he stockpiled last year when the “going was good”.

“It was a good year for dairy last year so, by luck, I bought fertiliser, but the majority of others would’ve been waiting until the springtime. Some beef farmers who had greater profits than normal last year will have bought ahead too.

“I bought and paid for it last year but only some of it has been delivered. I’m being told there is a lot of demand right now and a big delay in getting deliveries. I hope the rest of my order is delivered soon and I expect my supplier to honour the price I paid at the time of ordering.

“The panic is on,” he continued. “Everyone is definitely paying more for it, but you might not get what you want, the exact type of fertiliser your farm needs.”

He said farmers have no choice but to “ride it out”.

“If you cut back on fertiliser, you have to cut back on stock which means a cutback in output,” the Monaghan farmer said. “Farmers have long-term business plans and a lot of borrowings. Most are stocked at an optimum level for their farm, they have found the sweet spot. They are not going to bring 50 cows to the mart because fertiliser prices are high for a few months. Then what would they do with the over-supply of grass and silage?

“We have to walk the tightrope. For the first six months of last year, milk was almost 50 cents per litre but now it’s down to around 35 cents but we had a good start to the year.”

The farmer thought input costs had “stabilised” somewhat in the past year but now, diesel has taken a hike.

“Contractors are going to be hard to pay this year,” he said with an air of resignation.

IFA BUSINESS CHAIR

As far back as March 3, The IFA’s Business Chair, Bill O’Keefe, warned against fertisliser profiteering.

“There is a sufficient supply of fertiliser in the country, in merchants’ yards today, to cover all requirements for first applications to tillage crops and grassland, both grazing and first cut silage requirements. These stocks have been purchased before the current conflict started and the recent spike in energy prices,” he said.

The chair called on the Commission to temporarily suspend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism tariffs.

“In January the Commission said it could temporarily suspend CBAM if there is evidence of market disruption,” Mr O’Keefe said. “Should energy prices remain elevated it is likely to impact fertiliser process as we move through 2026.

“Given this, it is now imperative that our Minister pushes for the immediate suspension of CBAM tariffs on fertiliser to minimise any price impact in the coming months.”