Yes, Dublin are vulnerable - but they’re still highly dangerous

Analysis

Michael Hannon

When the Dubs got pulled out of the hat, I immediately found myself wondering whether it was a good draw for Cavan or a bad one. A week later, I'm still not entirely sure.

That uncertainty probably doesn't reflect particularly well on either side. Both have spent much of this season wrestling with problems of their own.

Cavan have won just two games all year. That is scar tissue being laid on top of scar tissue. The victories came against an Offaly side that would soon be relegated and a Kildare team whose season was already beginning to unravel. Neither could really be described as the type of statement win that ignites a campaign.

Dublin have their own wounds. The shock Leinster final defeat to Westmeath, after leading deep into extra-time, was followed almost immediately by another seismic loss to Louth in the opening round of the All-Ireland series.

The Louth result is particularly puzzling. After all, this was the same Dublin team that had comfortably beaten the Wee County only a few weeks earlier. What had changed?

Westmeath's Leinster final victory was built on a complete breakdown of Dublin's kick-out in extra-time. Peadar Ó Cofaigh Byrne picked up a shoulder injury and was badly missed once he left the field; goalkeeper Evan Comerford ultimately paid the price and was replaced by Hugh O'Sullivan for the Louth game.

Brian Howard and Ciarán Kilkenny started at midfield against Louth. Both are excellent footballers and both can get up off the ground to field a ball, but neither is particularly tall by modern midfield standards.

So there are issues around midfield. Good draw for Cavan then! Oh wait…

This is the same Cavan side that has repeatedly had to throw 36-year-old Gearóid McKiernan into games after 15 minutes to rescue situations that were rapidly getting out of control around the middle third. The same McKiernan who missed the Westmeath game through injury and looks unlikely to feature this weekend.

Bad draw then! Or maybe not.

Having rewatched Dublin's defeat to Louth, what struck me wasn't how poor Dublin were. It was how dangerous they still looked.

The first-half scoreline read 1-12 from play. It could just as easily have been 4-12 or 5-12. Time and again they sliced through the Louth defence. Time and again they manufactured goal opportunities. Time and again they made poor decisions once they got there.

That is what makes this Dublin team such an intriguing proposition.

Most teams have now fully embraced the two-point shot. Managers are actively searching for players capable of consistently landing scores from beyond the arc. Dublin appear to have gone in a different direction - they want goals.

Everything about their attacking structure against Louth suggested a team obsessed with working the ball to the perfect position before pulling the trigger. They repeatedly passed up reasonable shooting opportunities in favour of one more handpass, one more overlap, one more attempt to manufacture a goal chance.

At times it looked brilliant and at times it looked maddening.

A 25-metre shot under no pressure is often a better option than a 10-metre shot under intense pressure, yet Dublin repeatedly turned down the former in search of the latter.

The positive for Cavan, then, is obvious: If Dublin aren't taking two-pointers, they're unlikely to suddenly hit seven or eight of them.

The negative is equally obvious: You’ve got to be able to stop them scoring goals so you need really athletic players.

That brings us back to personnel. Two of Cavan's best defenders, Niall Carolan and Jason McLoughlin, were both absent from the starting team against Westmeath. If Dublin are committed to attacking the scoring zone relentlessly, Cavan need their best defenders available.

And that is where the challenge facing Dermot McCabe and his management team becomes clear. No matter how they shuffle their match-ups, there are going to be pairings that make for uncomfortable reading.

Con O'Callaghan, Niall Scully, Paddy Small, Seán Bugler, Cormac Costello and Killian McGinnis is a formidable forward line. Had all of those players been available throughout the league campaign, I suspect Dublin would never have found themselves relegated in the first place.

If Ó Cofaigh Byrne is fit to return, then either Howard or Kilkenny becomes available for redeployment elsewhere, with Howard likely to slot into the half-back line. The returning Lee Gannon would strengthen that line further.

The news surrounding Oisín Brady, arguably Cavan's player of the season, appears less encouraging. It looks increasingly likely that he will miss out again as he continues his recovery from the injury sustained against Monaghan in the Ulster Championship.

On balance, that's probably bad news. Then there is the kick-out battle.

Louth absolutely dominated possession from their own restarts. They repeatedly found runners breaking into pockets of space, often towards the left-hand side. Dublin tried a zonal press. It didn't work. They switched to a man-to-man approach. That didn't fare much better.

If you can't get your hands on the ball, you can't score and Louth understood that. The question is whether Cavan can replicate it.

The difficulty is that Cavan's own kick-out platform has not exactly been a source of comfort this season either. Too often they have found themselves chasing games after losing control around midfield.

All of which leaves us exactly where we started: Good draw or bad draw?

The evidence suggests Dublin are vulnerable. Westmeath and Louth proved that but rewatching the Louth game also reinforced something else - this is not a Dublin team struggling to create chances, it is a Dublin team struggling to finish enough of them.

That should concern Cavan supporters because finishing tends to fluctuate from game to game. Chance creation is usually the more reliable indicator of a team's true level.

If Dublin generate the same volume of opportunities they created against Louth, they are unlikely to be as wasteful a second time.

For Cavan, the path to victory is relatively clear but, of course, not easy.

Win enough kick-out ball. Breaking even around midfield won’t be good enough, they will need to make serious inroads into the Dublin kick-out. Prevent goals. Force Dublin into taking points rather than creating goal chances. Stay in touch entering the final quarter. Don’t drop off Bugler Howard or Paddy Small, Dublin’s only serious two-point threats.

Do that and doubt might begin to creep back into Dublin minds. Because for all their talent, this is no longer the all-conquering machine of a few years ago. The aura has faded. Teams no longer walk onto the field beaten before a ball is kicked.

The problem for Cavan is that exposing a weakness and exploiting it are two very different things. My head tells me Dublin have simply created too many chances in recent weeks not to click eventually.

What I am sure of is this: if Dublin rediscover their composure in front of goal, Cavan probably don't have the firepower to keep pace.

But if Cavan can turn this into an awkward, scrappy, uncomfortable championship battle, win enough kick-out ball and force Dublin into questioning themselves once again, then suddenly the giant on the other side of the field starts to look a lot more human.