Cavan must have a go against a Dublin side who can be got at

Analysis

Damien Donohoe

Sunday afternoon presents Cavan with an opportunity to write a piece of history.

If the Breffni men can overcome Dublin in an All-Ireland Championship fixture, it would be a first. Opportunities like that do not come around very often and, given the current path, they may become even rarer in the years ahead.

That alone should provide all the motivation required when Cavan take to the field in Breffni. Add in the fact that this is a knockout game, with one team's season ending at the final whistle, and it creates the perfect stage to assess where Cavan are as Dermot McCabe's first season in charge hits knock-out football.

Any analysis of Dublin must begin with the acknowledgement that this is no longer the all-conquering force that dominated Gaelic football for over a decade. The side that won six consecutive All-Ireland titles and had the rest of the country wondering if they would ever be beaten again is gone. This version of Dublin is considerably more vulnerable.

Across the O'Byrne Cup, League and Championship, Dublin have played 13 games this year and won just five. Victories over Louth, Wicklow and Laois came in the O'Byrne Cup and Championship, while their Division 1 league wins arrived against relegated Monaghan and Connacht champions Roscommon.

Those statistics suggest Dublin are no longer dining at the very top table and should offer encouragement to Cavan. One thing Dublin have retained is a level of consistency in attack. In their four championship outings they have scored 1-24, 0-26, 0-20 and 2-16, averaging 23.7 points per game.

The problem for Ger Brennan's side has been at the other end of the field. Despite one of those games requiring extra time, Dublin have conceded an average of 23.5 points per championship outing. Louth's tally of just 10 points in the Leinster semi-final is the outlier. Outside of that game, Dublin have looked defensively shaky, most notably against Wicklow in Aughrim where they were fortunate to emerge with a victory after conceding 2-14.

The fact that a Wicklow side which finished third in Division 4 pushed Dublin so close should further fuel belief within the Cavan camp. Whatever injuries and absences Cavan are dealing with, every player pulling on the blue jersey this Sunday will believe they are capable of performing above Division 4 standard. If Wicklow could come within touching distance, then Cavan should believe they can go one step further.

With some players opting to step away from the panel in recent weeks and questions are being asked again about the panel size. The losses of Evan Crowe and Conor Casey following the Westmeath defeat are difficult to quantify because it was only their second and first games respectively for Cavan in 2026. However, one message consistently coming from the Cavan camp has been "next man up". The players waiting for their opportunity now have their chance.

That said, while Dublin are no longer what they once were, it is equally difficult to argue that Cavan are currently operating at the level they reached in recent years. Cavan have lost nine of their 11 competitive games this season across the McKenna Cup, League and Championship. Their only victories came against the two sides eventually relegated from Division 2.

Interestingly, scoring has not been the primary issue in championship football. Across defeats to Monaghan and Westmeath, Cavan averaged 25 points per game. If they can reproduce that return, it should be enough to remain competitive against Dublin.

The concern lies defensively. Cavan have conceded an average of 30.5 points per championship game. Dublin's attack still contains elite talent. Paddy Small, Ciarán Kilkenny, Con O'Callaghan, Niall Scully, Cormac Costello and Brian Howard remain the players Cavan need to watch when the Dubs have the ball.

Yet it is Dublin's defence that appears most jittery. Ger Brennan's side have largely persisted with a man-to-man defensive and while that approach has many merits, Dublin have repeatedly struggled when opponents run directly at them.

Westmeath exposed it. Louth, learned from that and then exposed it. Both teams isolated ball carriers in one-on-one situations around the 40-metre arc and repeatedly attacked their direct opponents. More often than not, it resulted in a shot.

Cavan have players capable of doing exactly that. Emmanuel Shehu has consistently demonstrated an ability to beat defenders this year. Conor Brady, Darragh Lovett and, potentially, Ryan Brady should all be capable of creating similar problems if isolated against Dublin defenders. The challenge will be ensuring enough Cavan players are prepared to take responsibility and attack their man when the opportunity arises.

Dublin will undoubtedly arrive with plenty of motivation. The fallout from their Leinster Championship campaign, the interest surrounding Brennan's suspension and the defeat to Louth in Croke Park have all ensured there will be no shortage of hunger within their camp.

What Dublin still have not solved, however, is the goalkeeping situation left behind by Stephen Cluxton's retirement. Evan Comerford's error in the Leinster final gifted Brían Cooney a goal from distance, while Hugh O'Sullivan was exposed under a high ball against Louth when attempting to catch rather than punch clear. Who starts in goals remains uncertain, but whichever goalkeeper gets the nod, Cavan should be looking to test them at every opportunity.

For Cavan to win, a number of basics must improve. The skill execution that let them down against Westmeath cannot be repeated. Misplaced handpasses, dropped possession and inaccurate kick-passing are below the standard needed to win inter-county games. The shooting efficiency must also improve, both from play and from placed balls. The encouraging aspect is that these are areas where Cavan have shown they are capable of performing much better.

Perhaps the most important thing this weekend is mindset. Cavan should play with freedom. Nobody outside of the county is expecting them to beat Dublin. If defeat comes, it will be far easier for supporters to accept if it follows an aggressive, front-foot performance rather than a cautious one but if it leads to a win well it could be the kindle to raise a spark from the ashes.

This Dublin side is vulnerable. The evidence has been there throughout the year.

If Cavan are to spring a surprise, they must fully commit to the challenge, attack Dublin's weaknesses and trust themselves to play without fear. "Have a go" may sound simplistic, but it could be the smartest strategy available to Cavan this Sunday.