Published: Wednesday, 3rd March, 2010 5:00pm

What next for Cavan's 'ghost estates'?

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As a ratio of ghost estates per 1,000 of population Cavan has the fifth highest rate in the country

The crash in the Irish property market which has become evident in the last two to three years, has had many negative effects on banks, home owners and all those involved in the construction/property sector, but the problem of 'ghost estates' has emerged in recent times in academia and the media.

According to research conducted by the National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis (NIRSA), 621 of these estates have been identified in the Republic, 21 of which are located in county Cavan. A ghost estate as defined by NIRSA as "all properties built post-2005 where 10 or more units share the same estate/street address and more than 50 percent are coded as vacant or under-construction".

When measured as a ratio of ghost estates per 1,000 of population, Cavan has the 5th highest rate of these estates in the country behind other counties in the region: Leitrim, Longford, Roscommon and Sligo, with Monaghan at around the same level as Cavan.

The ghost estates in Cavan are widely distributed throughout the county, with most clustered around major towns such as Cavan, Belturbet and Kingscourt.

The data was mainly collected using GeoDirectory, where all buildings are registered as either under-construction, vacant or occupied, when checks take place once a year in rural areas, and twice a year in urban areas, and placed according to their status on the directory.

With the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) given the go-ahead from the EU on Friday, some of these estates may end up being transferred to the agency, while most will likely remain with their original developers.

Options

But what will happen to the ghost estates in the next five to ten years while the property market finds its route to recovery?

Professor Rob Kitchin, the one of the main analysts and researchers of the data, has outlined six possible options for these properties: Sell - properties to be off-loaded in fire-sales, much below their original price, thereby pushing current residents further into negative equity; Lease - properties to be rented to both private and public sector tenants, with council and housing associations looking to utilise ghost estates, but may prompt a negative reaction from existing residents; Hold - existing units are left vacant until the property market recovers, but it means that current residents continue to live on a building site or with few neighbours; Develop - unfinished estates will be completed and prepared for sale when the property market rises; Manage - the estate is managed with a view to sell, but it creates the problems of the estate deteriorating rapidly, and the maintenance will require residents to pay fees until vacant units are sold; or Demolish - when it is clear that the empty units will never be occupied, the houses may be demolished.

Prof. Kitchin said that the particular approach adopted will depend upon; "local and specific factors associated with each estate such as location and potential demand, occupancy rate, the percentage still under-construction, local clientist politics, state policy, and the interventions of local authorities, state agencies, housing associations, etc."

The ghost estates, of course, pose problems for residents at present, such as social problems due to few neighbours and vacant houses.

Also estates that still have units under-construction are in effect building sites, and many have unfinished street-lighting, footpaths and road surfacing as well as problems with water or sewage.

As NAMA begins its work in the coming weeks, the strategy employed by it will be under close scrutiny in the media and will certainly set the scene for the Irish property market for the next decade.