Opinion cavan to shade it

Paul Fitzpatrick

As the days draw closer, Cavan folk – as ever – are becoming more optimistic. The feeling is that they can win this and the talk emanating from the camp is that the ones who matter fully believe they will.

Can they? Why not? Monaghan are a very good side but they are not - yet - a Kerry, a Dublin or even a Mayo.

The narrative surrounding the Connact men - who have consistently reached All-Ireland finals and semi-finals, remember – is generally gloomy, yet Monaghan have been talked up and up.

In fairness, their impressive showing against Dublin and win against Kerry in deepest Munster was good form for the jotter but it's not long ago since Derry ripped it up in the league and collapsed in the championship. Reviews earned off Broadway should, as we know, carry an asterisk...

Monaghan are also reliant heavily on Conor McManus – who scored more than the two next highest scorers put together in the league – to keep the scoreboard ticking and if Cavan can blot him out, they will be halfway there.

The expectation around this Monaghan team is huge. The Farney fans who have been quoted in the media – Gerry McCarville in the Irish News, Declan Loughman in Gaelic Life, Shane Duffy on the Anglo-Celt podcast, Nudie Hughes on Shannonside Northern Sound – are all fairly confidently tipping a Monaghan win.

Monaghan's body of work, of course, is much more impressive than Cavan's but are they so far ahead that they can come to Breffni Park as 4/7 favourites?

I don't think so. Had Cavan shown a little more composure and kicked on when they were three points clear with five minutes to go against Meath in the final round of the league – a freak afternoon when they kicked 16 wides – they would be joining the noisy neighbours in Division 1.

And that was after a campaign spent adjusting to the loss of some key players, all cut from the same physical mould.

The Oriel men have been to quarter-finals, but so have Cavan. The cliché says Cavan don't fear them but the results show it, too – including McKenna Cup and league, Cavan have won three and lost one by a point in this fixture in the past 23 months.

Terry Hyland's men are buzzing and have impressed on the challenge game circuit. Key men such as Cian Mackey and Gearoid McKiernan (the latter of whom didn't feature two summers ago in Clones) are in fine fettle, and Martin Reilly has been Man of the Match in three-quarters of matches he's played since early 2014.

A royal blue and white haymaker is winding up and it will take a canny Monaghan showing to duck it. If they do, we think a long summer awaits for Malachy O'Rourke's men.

Two years ago, Monaghan won by a point at home in championship. This time, we'll take Cavan to do the same.

Verdict: Cavan by one