OPINION: How Mayo can overcome the odds against the Dubs

Dublin probably will win this final - but here’s how Mayo can turn the tables, writes Michael Hannon.

Previewing an All-Ireland final is never as easy as it seems so, straight off the bat, let's get one thing straight: Jim Gavin's Dublin are favourites for this year's title with every bookmaker in the world for a very good reason.
They have been absolutely outstanding in every game they've played with the exception of their Leinster Championship match against Carlow. 
That day they were methodical and patient as Carlow played with all 15 men inside their 45-metre line in the tight confines of Netwatch Cullen Park. 
Three months later and Tyrone were experiencing the same methodical Dublin but this time the pace, power and penetration was on display in the much wider expanses of Croke Park. 
Dublin consistently defeat average teams by cricket scores, and good teams by eight to 15 points. So it would be very easy to sit here and list off all the reasons why they're going to beat Mayo next Sunday. 
I'll be straight with you right now and say I expect them to have enough to achieve the elusive three-in-a-row. 
But if I'm also honest about it, I find it much more interesting to look at reasons why Mayo might have more than just a fighting chance against this Dublin side. 
Maybe it's the part of me that likes a challenge but for the rest of this article, I'm going to put forward their case for winning. Because believe me when I say this, there are very good reasons why this Mayo side have always been able to give this Dublin team a game. 
Now, I accept that the same could be said about Tyrone up to their recent semi-final clash but the Red Hands' ability to stay competiive was almost completely predicated on a defensive system which Dublin are now masters at breaking down. 
Mayo’s ability to be competitive has been based predominantly on personnel, combined with a very aggressive approach to applying pressure all over the field. 
This makes the Connacht a different proposition to every other team Dublin play. 
Gavin has built a team that can play the game anyway they choose. They'll go toe-to-toe with you, 15 on 15, and this prospect, because of the speed and athleticism they possess all over the field, frightens teams. Most, then, revert to playing with a mass defence. 
Here's the rub, though. The Dubs are now at a point in their development where the mass defence doesn't really fluster them anymore. 

The good news for Mayo is they don't set up like Carlow, like Tyrone, like Donegal, like Cavan, like Roscommon, like Derry, like Monaghan, or like any other amount of counties. 
The six defenders that take to the field on any given day for Stephen Rochford's team are all individually athletic enough that they don't need the comfort of a defensive blanket to wrap around them. 
This approach is what makes them different. They're not scared of the pace and power Dublin have because Mayo possess, at the back at least, a set of defenders who are capable of matching up with any forward line thrown their way. 

Athleticsm
Having this athleticism at the back allows this Mayo team to do something that they managed very effectively in both the All-Ireland finals last year against the same opposition. 
That is, their defenders didn’t step away from their men to help team-mates and try and double up to win turnovers. 
It seems counter-intuitive to what good defensive cover should be but they more or less left their team-mates in one-on-one situations and each defender focussed solely on his own man. 
Any extra help was coming from the Mayo midfielders or perhaps a returning half-forward. Think, for a moment, about the effect this had on a Dublin side who were ill-prepared for this approach. 
A lot of the time, when a Dublin forward managed to get posession his only options were to take on his man or return the pass to a midfielder or a wing-back, which usually meant the ball went backwards and with Cian O’Sullivan at centre back dropping off, that ruled him out of getting involved. 
It was effectively 15 v 14 for periods of the game when Dublin had possession. This is the norm for Dublin due to O’Sullivan's role. 
Usually, however, those 14 players are under no pressure for two thirds of the field as the opposition have stepped away from them to assume their positions in a mass defence. 
Not so against Mayo because no Mayo man was dropping off and, consequently, Dublin didn’t have the comfort and time to organise themselves and get any attacking fluidity. 
It meant the inter-play between Dublins forwards was non-existent. This was particularly true in the drawn game. 

Approach
Mayo are going to have to replicate that approach again this weekend because one of the things that Dublin do better than anyone else is run the ball from the halfway line up. 
They create triangles and routinely work in patterns that go 1-2-3 rather than the classic 1-2 most of us grew up on, which is the idea of giving a pass and going for the return. 
Dublin players give a pass, go for the return, don’t get it, keep going, and then get it one pass later. 
It creates confusion among defenders as they lose sight of the ball, and then in an attempt to gain sight of it again, will lose contact with their player. And it is at that very moment that the pass is slipped to Dublin player. It's simple and it's devastating.
Mayo helped to nullify this aspect of Dublin's game last year by instructing their defenders not to bother looking for the ball if they lost sight of it and to focus on their own player at all times. 
It was interesting to see so many Mayo defenders have their back to the play and staring into the face of their Dublin opponent. It's very aggressive and intimidating and makes getting free very difficult. 
Meanwhile, out the field, Dublin players threw the ball backwards when they were unable to pass it forward due to this approach from Mayo. 
It got me thinking that Dublin would nearly rather a side drop off and play with the blanket. That’s them at their most comfortable. 
Ciaran Kilkenny can run around and get 55 touches of the ball as team-mates spread the field in anticipation of whats coming next. But Kilkenny was hounded last year in both games – and that’s another key to disrupting Dublin's attacking template. 
The Castleknock forward couldn’t go from sideline to sideline without feeling the breath of a Mayo man down his neck. So, making life even more difficult for Kilkenny this year is going to be crucial. 
Next we have the Stephen Cluxton kick-out. Mayo have attacked this before with some degree of success. Cluxton can go long to his right, long down the middle, but when he goes out to the left he is noticeably shorter than he was four or five years ago. 

If you’re going to press the Dublin kick-out, you have to make sure you have big high-fielding men in the two places where Cluxton can go long. Mayo have plenty of those type of players but it will take quite some amount of organisation among themselves to firstly force Cluxton to go long, and secondly have the right players in the right places. 
With much debate over where to play Aidan O’Shea, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him a role that allows him attack the Cluxton kick-out should he kick long. 
In the all ireland final of 2013, Mayo dominated Cluxton's kick-out in the first half. In the second half, however, the Parnells custodian turned the tables on Mayo with the best kick-out display I’ve ever seen. 
But the game has changed tactically then since then - and potentially in Mayo's favour. Mayo know that they can do something similar to what Kerry did to Dublin in the league final this year and commit extra bodies up the field on Cluxton's kickouts to flood all those pockets of space. 
This they did exceptionaly well against Roscommon in the replay and shows that it is something they’re tuned into doing. 
And finally, they have a bench. With Chris Barrett back from injury, Mayo have at least two if not three substitutes capable of coming on fresh at the back to counter the Dublin forwards who are sprung off the bench, usually to wreak havoc on the opposition in the closing minutes. 
That is absolutely crucial, having fresh players to match up with Gavin's bench in the final 20 minutes. 
Rochford was forced to replace Lee Keegan with Stephen Coen early in last year's replay. Provided no-one gets an early black card, he could theoretically spring Paddy Durcan, Coen and Ger Cafferkey in the second half this time. 
It's worth noting that as good as Dublin have been, it was their subs who won them last year's final (Cormac Costello anyone?) and indeed the 2015 replay when Michael Darragh Macauley arrived late in the game to over-run Mayo. 
Like I said, Dublin are favourites and my suspicion is we’ll be saluting them for achieving their hat-trick of Sams, but this Mayo side can get at them, especially when they throw off the shackles and just go for it. 
One thing is certain: it should make for a cracker of a game.

Tweet: @mickeyhannon