Farney are in with a great chance of upsetting the odds
Analysis
Michael Hannon
I can understand why Roscommon have been installed as favourites for Saturday's All-Ireland championship clash.
The emergence of the Heneghan cousins has transformed Mark Dowd's side. The raw pace they have injected into the Roscommon attack has added a dimension that simply wasn't there previously.
Daire Heneghan in particular has become a genuine difference-maker. Time and again throughout the championship he has turned broken situations into scoring opportunities with his ability to burst through defensive lines and attack space at speed.
In many ways, he offers Roscommon something similar to what Stephen O'Hanlon brings to Monaghan when available. Genuine pace remains one of the most difficult weapons in football to defend against and Roscommon suddenly have it in abundance.
That pace was a major factor in their victory over Mayo. However, while much of the focus afterwards centred on their attacking play, the foundations of that win were actually laid elsewhere: Roscommon systematically dismantled Mayo's kickout strategy.
Forced to go long by Roscommon's aggressive press, Robbie Hennelly repeatedly found himself kicking into an imposing Roscommon triangle of Keith Doyle, Conor Ryan and Enda Smith. With 15 minutes remaining, Roscommon had already won 10 Mayo kick-outs and would secure several more before the finish.
All of that additional possession allowed them to repeatedly feed one of the most dangerous forward lines in the country.
Between the Heneghans, Diarmuid Murtagh and Colm Neary, Roscommon possess a blend of pace, trickery and finishing ability that many counties would envy.
The obvious question for Monaghan is whether they can avoid falling into the same trap. The kick-out battle feels absolutely central to this game.
Roscommon's defeat to Tyrone a fortnight ago offered an equally valuable lesson. Niall Morgan's performance that day was exceptional. Time and again he found Tyrone players from restarts, particularly the towering figures of Conn Kilpatrick and Brian Kennedy around the middle third.
It was one of the key reasons Tyrone escaped with victory.
Monaghan face a different challenge. They do not possess the same level of height around midfield that Tyrone can call upon and that places even greater importance on Rory Beggan's decision-making.
Few goalkeepers influence games to the same extent as the Scotstown man - yet Beggan's role could extend beyond simply restarting possession.
Conor Carroll possesses one of the biggest kick-outs in the inter-county game. In terms of pure distance, there are very few goalkeepers capable of matching him. At the same time, Roscommon's defenders and half-forward line work tirelessly to create short options and Carroll routinely takes what is presented in front of him.
Monaghan may have to think creatively. One possibility would be to leave an extra player inside the Roscommon half-forward line while allowing Beggan to advance towards midfield whenever Carroll is preparing to restart possession. Tyrone employed a similar tactic with Morgan and there were periods where the All-Star goalkeeper found himself competing directly with midfielders for possession.
There were also a few nervous moments for Tyrone when Morgan failed to gather cleanly and suddenly found himself in a foot race back towards his own goal with Roscommon attackers bearing down on him. High risk, high reward - but championship football often turns on such margins.
That is one of the reasons why I feel this contest is significantly closer than the bookmakers suggest. The market is undoubtedly reacting to Roscommon's form and the emergence of several exciting new players.
Yet there are reasons to believe Monaghan can make life extremely uncomfortable for them. The first is personnel. The Monaghan team that lost heavily in the league to Roscommon earlier this year was not operating at full strength. The return of players such as Conor McCarthy significantly alters the athletic profile of Gabriel Bannigan's side, while O'Hanlon's pace is something they badly missed against Mayo.
The second is tactical. Roscommon have thrived in chaos throughout the season; They want turnovers, they want kick-out wins, they want broken play, they want runners attacking open grass. Above all else, they want the game stretched.
Monaghan don't mind a little chaos themselves but I suspect they would be better served by adopting a more controlled approach.
To borrow a basketball phrase, if this becomes an 11-v-11 half-court game rather than an end-to-end transition battle, then the Farney men may actually hold some advantages.
Monaghan probably possess more genuine two-point threats spread throughout their team. Dessie Ward, Karl Gallagher, Jack McCarron, Conor McCarthy and Rory Beggan have all demonstrated an ability and willingness to punish teams from beyond the arc.
They also possess a wealth of experience in managing tight championship contests. Roscommon, meanwhile, have relied heavily on goals throughout the season.
If Monaghan can protect possession, limit turnovers, disrupt the Conor Carroll kick-out and retain enough of their own restarts, the volume of possession Roscommon require to create those goal opportunities becomes far more difficult to generate. That, ultimately, is the challenge.
Should Roscommon dominate possession and create the sort of chaotic contest they have repeatedly enjoyed this season, they will be extremely difficult to stop.
But if Monaghan can establish control, slow the game down and force Roscommon into an 11-v-11 battle of patience and execution, then I believe the Ulster side are considerably better equipped than many people realise. Their performance against Armagh was a good indicator of what they are capable of in my opinion.
In short, Roscommon have spent the summer proving how dangerous they are when games become chaotic. Monaghan's challenge is to ensure Sunday becomes a game of control. Out of all the fixtures down for decision this weekend, this is the one that I can see going against the bookies and ending in an upset.