Brendan Fay _Ind_..jpg

Rise of Fay and fall of SF the surprise packages in Belturbet-Cavan 

Cavan-Belturbet is an enthralling count and with the final tallies completed it seems that John Paul Feeley will top the poll, and be elected with over 100 votes to spare on the first count. The Fianna Fáil man got an incredible 1,407 votes (15%).
Outgoing Cathaoirleach Madeleine Argue also performed very well, claiming 1,221 (13%) first preference votes, which is just shy of the quota projected to be around 1,300.  
Argue's and Feeley's successes were to be expected - what was not expected was the trouble in which Sinn Féin finds itself at this stage. Having previously had two councillors in Damien Brady and Daniel Downey, realistically the best they can hope for is a single seat and they face the real possibility of having no councillors at all among this electoral area's six representatives.
What may have hit Damien Brady is the secondary schools issue in West Cavan. The Sinn Féin man supported the new school in Ballyconnell at the expense of St Bricin's and St Mogue's in Bawnboy. Belturbet publican Brendan Fay made the retention of both schools a central tenet of his campaign, which seems to have played in his favour as he's second in the poll amassing 1,226 votes. 
Looking at who are the first candidates to be eliminated, their second preferences still give Brady a very strong chance of making it; which possibly imperils Peter McVitty 947 (FG) 10% or Patricia Walsh.
A big factor in Downey's concern is Patricia Walsh doing so well in Cavan Town; coming either first or second in all 14 boxes. Of the 1,062 first preference votes the Fianna Fáiler got in total - 791 of those came from Cavan Town urban (381) and rural (410). 
Sean Smith is also sitting pretty with 1,113 votes (12%) and the Fianna Fáil man could be set to return to the council chamber for a third term.
Those who are probably out of the equation are Liam Van Der Spek 589 (Lab); Emmett Smith 494 (Solidarity PBP); Daniel Downey 434 (SF) and Sean McKiernan 175 (FG). Essentially it's six councillors from seven candidates.

John Paul Feeley 1407 (FF) 15%
Brendan Fay 1,226 (Ind) 13%
Madeleine Argue 1,221 (FG) 13%
Sean Smith 1,113 (FF) 12%
Patricia Walsh 1,062 (FF) 11%
Peter McVitty 947 (FG) 10%
Damien Brady 711 (SF) 8%
Liam Van Der Spek 589 (Lab) 6%
Emmett Smith 494 (Solidarity PBP) 5%
Daniel Downey 434 (SF) 5%
Sean McKiernan 175 (FG) 2%

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https://www.anglocelt.ie/elections/roundup/articles/2019/05/24/4174595-live-election-blog-2019/